Trump’s performance doesn’t lie
Donald Trump often claims to be the greatest president ever. “Make America Great Again”. He framed the prior administration as being a drag on the economy and on our country’s status in the world, and has actively sought to undo Obama’s entire policy agenda. He eliminated drug and environmental regulations, lowered income taxes on corporations and the wealthy, and undermined the Affordable Care Act. His supporters claim that this has unshackled the economy and unleashed a new wave of growth. But has it?
With the presidential election approaching, I thought it would be helpful for voters in the upcoming election to compare Trump’s and Obama’s performance across the three areas that matter most to the American people: the economy, terrorism, and abortion. (His handling of the pandemic is also critically important, but has been addressed in a separate article.)
Economy
Before the pandemic hit, the U.S. economy had been growing at the same rate under Trump as under Obama. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an average of 1.87% during the first three years of Trump’s term (before the pandemic hit) versus 1.82% during the final three years of Obama’s presidency.
Donald Trump is the only president since WWII who has presided over a net loss in jobs. Almost 5 million fewer people were employed at the end of August 2020 than when Trump took office. However, even before the pandemic hit, net job growth was lower under Trump (6.6 million net new jobs created during his first three years) than under Obama (7.9 million net new jobs created during his last three years).
With respect to trade, Donald Trump often points to his “America First” agenda and brags about how tough he is in trade negotiations. He started multiple trade wars, which have strained relationships with other countries, increased prices to consumers and led to a 140% increase in U.S. farm bankruptcies. Yet our trade deficit has actually increased over the levels that existed under Obama.
President Obama entered office in the midst of the Great Recession. The federal budget deficit exploded in his first year from $460 billion to $1.4 trillion. However, as the economy began to recover, he brought the deficit down to a low of $442 billion in 2015 and $585 billion his last year in office.
President Trump, in contrast, took office during the longest economic expansion in American history. The policies he implemented drove the deficit back up to almost $1 trillion in 2019.
As a result, by June 2020, the federal debt levels exceeded the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the first time since WWII.
President Trump has been prone to take credit whenever the stock market hits a new high. He seems to use the S&P Index as an indicator for how well he is performing. Yet the S&P 500 has only grown by an average of 9% per year under Trump, as compared to 16% per year over Obama’s entire presidency and 12% during his second term alone.
Terrorism
Terrorism feeds off lies, conspiracies, disinformation, and hatred. The threat of terrorist attacks — especially from domestic terrorist groups — has grown rapidly under President Trump. James Mattis, Trump’s former Secretary of Defense and retired four-star Marine general accused the president of intentionally and actively stoking divisions, stating:
“Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people — does not even pretend to try. Instead, he tries to divide us. We are witnessing the consequences of three years of this deliberate effort. We are witnessing the consequences of three years without mature leadership.”
The past four years have been one of the most active periods of extremist activity in decades, with a 55% growth of white nationalist hate groups. President Trump’s divisive rhetoric has emboldened far right wing extremists, resulting in a surge in reported hate crimes across the country. Counties that voted for President Trump by the widest margins in 2016 experienced the largest increases in reported hate crimes.
90% of U.S. attacks and plots perpetrated by right-wing extremists
Two thirds of the attacks and plots in the United States in 2019 were perpetrated by right-wing extremists. That share increased to over 90 percent through May 8, 2020.
The “Boogaloo boys” is a far-right group that seeks to capitalize on political tensions to push the country toward a civil war. The group has repeatedly tried to pin acts of violence they commit on the left-wing “Black Lives Matter” (BLM) movement:
- The only group named in the documents filed by the Department of Justice against 53 people charged with committing acts of violence during the protests following George Floyd’s death is the Boogaloo movement.
- The alleged killer of a federal police officer in Oakland during BLM protests is a member of the Boogaloo Boys.
- Police in Virginia said white supremacists had instigated riots in Richmond “under the guise of Black Lives Matter”.
- The FBI arrested three Boogaloo Boys in Las Vegas after they allegedly planned to “hijack the [BLM] protests” to attack government officials and property.
QAnon is a growing domestic terror threat
In May 2019, the FBI described “conspiracy theory-driven domestic extremists” as a growing threat. QAnon — the most prominent far-right conspiracy movement — began in October 2017 around the premise that President Trump is is leading a fight against “deep state” elites who worship Satan and run a global child sex-trafficking ring. It espouses a militant anti-establishment ideology that seeks usher in a day of reckoning with prominent politicians and journalists being arrested and executed. QAnon has grown to millions of members, including 20 Republican candidates for Congress who openly support it. The Combatting Terrorism Center at West Point believes that QAnon has the potential to become a serious domestic terror threat.
Despite these warnings from the FBI and military intelligence, President Trump has retweeted QAnon-supporting accounts more than 130 times and continues to actively foster the narrative about traitorous forces within the government and the Democratic party. When he was recently questioned about his support for QAnon, he responded:
“I don’t know much about the movement other than I understand they like me very much, which I appreciate…. I have heard that it is gaining in popularity…. I’ve heard these are people that love our country…. I don’t know really anything about it other than they do supposedly like me.”
The reporter explained that “QAnon believes you are secretly saving the world from this cult of pedophiles and cannibals. Are you behind that?” to which Trump responded:
“I haven’t heard that. Is that supposed to be a bad thing or a good thing?… And we are actually, we’re saving the world.”
U.S. intelligence capabilities are being degraded
Jihadists around the world remain intent on attacking the United States. Yet our ability to defend our nation against future terrorist attacks has been degraded.
The U.S. intelligence community presents the commander-in-chief with a daily briefing report (PDB) that provides him with the information he needs to protect the country against internal and external threats. Yet President Trump has been called “unbriefable”. Multiple accounts from within the White House report that he does not read the PDB, cannot concentrate during oral briefings (which he only takes once or twice a week), and routinely disparages the agencies’ findings, often countering them with conspiracy theories.
Equally importantly, President Trump’s continuous attacks disparaging and delegitimizing the U.S. intelligence community has driven numerous experienced career professionals to leave since he took office. This is not just about a few senior officers — it’s also about the future. Former intelligence chiefs warn that our intelligence agencies will have a hard time attracting new young talent, who see fealty rewarded, honesty punished, and career professionals humiliated for delivering a message that is at odds with the president’s political agenda.
Abortion
Abortion rates came down quicker under Clinton and Obama than under any Republican president. Abortion rates were lower at the end of the Obama presidency than they were before the Roe vs. Wade ruling in 1973.
In terms of absolute number of abortions, 586,760 were reported to the CDC in 1972, which increased to a peak of 1,429,577 in 1990. This figure has steadily declined, and reached a low of 623,471 by the end of 2016. (The Trump Administration has not provided any data on abortions since taking office.)
Summary
The Southern Poverty Law Center has accused Trump of “normalizing hate as a political weapon” like no other president in modern history by embracing far-right extremists and legitimizing fringe conspiracy theories that poison our democracy and energize a dangerous terrorist movement.
Many people seek to justify supporting Trump based on his economic performance. However, despite weakening numerous consumer protections and driving up the national debt to levels not seen since WWII, President Trump has underperformed against his predecessor on every economic metric.
Notes:
¹ $5.7T figure includes CBO estimated budget deficit of $3.3 trillion in 2020
² CBO estimate at the end of 2020
In short, based on official data and intelligence reports, there is no evidence that Donald Trump has made “America Great Again” and ample evidence that he has weakened our economic foundation, diminished our respect and influence around the world, and made us more vulnerable to both domestic and foreign terrorist attacks.
